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Flares
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01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.3
09. X2.2
10. X2.2


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The Sun Today : Updated December 18, 2014

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3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
December 18
December 19
December 20
3 (G0)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
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December 18, 2014 @ 12:25 UTC
Growing Sunspots, Flare Threat Increased
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Thursday, including a closeup look at the magnetic layouts of regions 2241 and 2242. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2241 produced an M1.4 solar flare at 19:01 UTC (Dec 17). Both regions continued to consistently produce C-Flares. Each currently possess Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layouts, along with well defined east-west lines between positive and negative polarity. Moderate M-Class solar flares will remain likely during the next 24-48 hours with an increasing chance for an isolated X-Class event. Both regions are currently in a good geoeffective Earth facing position. All other visible regions were stable. With full coronagraph imagery now available following the M8 flare from Dec 17, it was determined that while a majority of released material was indeed directed to the south, a small portion of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may be Earth directed. Only a minor increase in geomagnetic activity is to be expected beginning on Dec 19. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.

December 17, 2014 @ 05:00 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Observed (M8.7)
Solar activity reached high levels early Wednesday morning. Expanding sunspot 2242, now located in a geoeffective position, produced a strong M8.7 solar flare peaking at 04:50 UTC. The event was associated with a 7 minute long Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320 solar flux units (SFU) and a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 910 km/s. Click HERE for a video. Region 2242, along with region 2241, will each remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares. More updates regarding a possible CME once additional information becomes available. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.

UPDATE: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced by the M8.7 solar flare and appears to be directed mostly to the south and away from our planet. More updates later this morning if necessary. Regions 2241 and 2242 will remain a threat for additional solar flares.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 December 18 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. Region 2241
(S10E11, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period,
an M1/1n flare at 17/1901 UTC, as well as a couple of high level C-class
flares. This region continued to show growth and maintained its delta
magnetic configuration across an east-west polarity inversion line
during the period. Region 2242 (S18W09, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained
one of the most active regions, also producing multiple C-class events,
the largest being a C7/Sf event at 17/2126 UTC. It too, continued to
exhibit growth in its overall areal coverage and maintained its delta
magnetic configuration. The remaining regions on the visible disk
remained stable and mostly inactive. No Earth directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (18-20 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. There is also a chance for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

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A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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