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X1.6
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Flares
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01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X2.8
07. X2.3
08. X2.2
09. X2.2
10. X2.1


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The Sun Today : Updated October 22, 2014

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M-Class: 95%
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Geomag. Storm    NO
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October 23
October 24
October 25
4 (G0)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
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Prob-M 10%
Prob-H 40%
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Updated 10/22/2014 @ 17:35 UTC
Here We Go Again
Region 2192 produced another strong solar flare, this time peaking at X1.6 at 14:28 UTC. An R3 radio blackout producing significant HF signal fading was observed on the sunlit side of Earth during the height of the flare. Unfortunately for sky watchers anticipating a coronal mass ejection, just like all previous events around 2192 up until this point, a noteworthy CME does not appear evident. The active region continues to move into a geoeffective position. Perhaps our luck will change. Stay tuned. Click HERE for the X1.6 event log.

Updated 10/22/2014 @ 11:50 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Below is an updated look at the visible solar disk and the magnetic layout of region 2192 on Wednesday. Solar activity again reached high levels thanks to an M8.7 solar flare around AR 2192 at 01:59 UTC. A noteworthy CME does not appear to be associated with the event. This was followed up by a smaller M2.7 flare at 05:17 UTC. All other visible regions remain stable. A new sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and should be numbered 2195 today.

In the attached magnetic layout image above courtesy of SDO/HMI, positive and negative polarity umbra (dark region of a sunspot) are labelled. The active region (2192) continues to maintain a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic formation and will remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares.

Added 10/22/2014 @ 02:30 UTC
M8.7 Solar Flare Observed
Region 2192 is back at it again with a strong M8.7 solar flare observed at 01:59 UTC early Wednesday morning. Previous flaring around 2192 the past several days have failed to produce a noteworthy CME. Based on updated SDO imagery using the 193 angstroms channel, no significant coronal dimming, or shock appears evident. More updates to follow once coronagraph imagery becomes available. Click HERE for the event log.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 October 23 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. Region 2192 (S12E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an X1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 22/1428 UTC with an associated
200 sfu Tenflare. Careful analysis of SDO and SOHO/LASCO imagery
suggested that there was not a CME associated with this event. Region
2192 also produced two M-class events (an R1-Minor and an R2-Moderate)
during the period. The region continued to grow and SDO magnetogram
imagery indicated emerging positive flux within the large trailer spot
cluster.

An M1 flare was observed at 22/1557 UTC off the southeast limb
associated with a Bright Surge on the Limb (BSL) and a Type II radio
sweep (1469 km/s). The CME is well off the Sun-Earth line and is not
expected to be geoeffective.

New Region 2195 (N08E70, Dso/beta) was numbered today as it rotated onto
the northeast limb and it appears there are more trailer spots to
follow. All other regions on the disk were relatively stable and quiet.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are expected with R3 (Strong) activity
likely over the next three days (23-25 Oct) due to an increase in
magnetic complexity within Region 2192.

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NOAA SUNSPOT SUMMARY | SolarHam Sunspot Summary

A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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