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February 13, 2016 @ 14:20 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning folks. Here is a look at region 2497 as it rotates across the northwest quadrant on Saturday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours declined to low levels with numerous B-Flares and C-Flares observed around the active region. The cluster of sunspots still maintains a delta magnetic layout and should remain a threat for a moderately strong solar flare during the next 24 hours. All of the other visible regions were either stable or in a state of decay. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past day.

A reminder that a minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning tomorrow (Feb 14) as a CME observed late on February 11th could deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field. Sky watchers at very high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora displays should the event unfold.

February 12, 2016 @ 11:45 UTC
Potential Eruption Detected (UPDATED)
An eruption peaking at C8.9 was just observed at 21:03 UTC (Feb 11) around region 2497. Incoming imagery courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) suggests that a coronal mass ejection (CME) will be associated. More updates to follow.

CME UPDATE #2: Complete coronagraph imagery is now available and appears to reveal a relatively faint, partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME). According to NOAA, a portion of the plasma cloud is Earth directed and could deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field by late on Valentine's Day February 14th, or early 15th. This could lead to increased geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes. More to follow in the days ahead.


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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2016 February 13 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2497 (N12W35,
Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an
M1/1b at 13/1524 UTC. The region produced several other low-level
C-class flares in the past 24 hours. Region 2497 exhibited dissipation
around its leader and trailer spots and consolidation around its
intermediate spot. All other regions were stable and inactive. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

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