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The Sun Today : Updated September 2, 2014

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M-Class: 20%
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Geomag. Storm    NO
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3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
September 2
September 3
September 4
3 (G0)
Max Kp
3 (G0)
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Prob-M 01%
Prob-H 15%
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Updated 09/02/2014 @ 18:15 UTC
Large Filament Eruption
Attached video below by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) using the 304 angstroms channel captures a large filament eruption in the northern hemisphere on Tuesday. Although most of the material (plasma) appears to be directed north of the ecliptic, updated coronagraph imagery is required to determine if there is an Earth directed component. Stay tuned.

Updated 09/02/2014 @ 11:40 UTC
Solar Update / Farside Flare Party
Good morning. Here is the SolarHam update for Tuesday morning. Earth facing solar activity during the past 24 hours was low. Region 2152 showed intermediate spot growth and now possesses a weak delta structure within the center of the group. This region should continue to be monitored as it is now in an Earth facing geoeffective position. All other visible regions, including departing sunspot 2149, are currently stable.

In sharp contrast to the Earth side of the sun, the farside seen at least three moderate to major solar flares on Monday. The strongest event took place Monday morning around a new sunspot still a few days away behind the northeast limb. A bright, fast moving and energetic coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced and directed away from Earth. Old region 2144, now about 24 hours away from returning into view off the southeast limb, produced a moderate to strong solar flare at approximately 16:15 UTC and was also responsible for a non Earth directed CME. A third event, what could possibly have been an X-Class solar flare, was observed at 22:15 UTC from a new region located just to the northeast of 2144. Yet another CME was produced and directed away from Earth. Proton levels streaming past Earth are currently at elevated levels and is likely associated with the activity from just behind the east limb.

There will remain a chance for minor C-Class solar flares and perhaps an increasing chance for an isolated moderate M-Class event. Solar flare risks could again increase once farsided regions begin to rotate onto the visible disk this week.

Added 09/02/2014 @ 02:25 UTC
Major Farsided Solar Flare
A major solar flare, possibly X-Class, was observed this morning behind the east limb. Attached imagery below by STEREO Behind captures the bright flash of the eruption beginning at 11:05 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 2079 km/s. A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest STEREO Behind COR2 coronagraph imagery. The event also looks to be very energetic as particles are now bombarding the spacecraft and creating noise in the latest imagery. We will get a better look at the source region later this week when it begins to rotate into view. Click HERE for a video.

UPDATE: Additional solar flares are being observed behind the east limb, this time around old sunspot 2144. A number of coronal mass ejections are visible in the latest coronagraph imagery. We should begin to see the returning region within the next 24-48 hours. Stay tuned.


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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 September 2 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2152 (S16W05,
Eac/beta-gamma)produced a C2/Sf flare at 02/0059 UTC, the largest flare
of the period, as well as other low level C-class flares. This region
continued to grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area. Region 2153
(S10W31, Dao/beta) also grew significantly during the period, mainly in
its leader spot area. The remaining spot groups were stable and appeared
to be fairly stable.

A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1,094 km/s) was observed at
01/2211 UTC along with a Type IV sweep associated with an eruption off
the east limb. No flare accompanied the event and the resulting CME
appears to be headed well east of the Sun-Earth line. Two additional
CMEs were observed in Lasco C2 imagery departing the east limb. The
first became visible at 01/2224 UTC, with the second one first showing
at 02/0236 UTC. Both appear to have an eastward trajectory, resulting in
likely non-Earth directed CMEs. There was also a faint, partial halo CME
that became visible in the Lasco C2 imagery at approximately 01/2136
UTC. This CME had a mostly northwesterly trajectory, but will be modeled
as soon as imagery is available.

The other notable feature on the visible disk was a nearly 38 degree
long filament, centered near N19W10, that appeared to be beginning to
lift off from the corona. At the time of this discussion, it had not
erupted nor lifted off, but will be monitored closely.
   
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next two days (02-03
Sep) with Regions 2149 or 2152 being the likely sources.  By day three
(04 Sep), the chance for an R1-R2 event will increase as old Region 2139
(N15, L=053) returns.

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A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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