Incoming CME Watch / Minor Geomagnetic Storm
05/19/2013 by Kevin VE3EN at 01:50 UTC

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Updated 05/19/2013 @ 01:50 UTC
Incoming CME Watch
An incoming Coronal Mass Ejection originating from an M3 solar flare around Sunspot 1748 on May 17 is expected to sweep past Earth on Sunday. Minor to Moderate Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at high latitudes should the plasma cloud impact our geomagnetic field. Stay Tuned for the latest updates.

Updated 05/18/2013 @ 03:20 UTC
CME Impact / Minor Geomagnetic Storm
A little later than expected, but a Coronal Mass Ejection from the X1 event on May 15th swept past Earth on Friday evening. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 31 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer. With the help of a south tipping Bz / IMF component, a minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) lasting several hours resulted at high latitudes. Visual aurora was spotted across many locations , including the northern USA and Canada.

Aurora over British Columbia, Canada - Image by Kevin Sharman

Visual Aurora Images: Below is a photo taken by myself around 05:00 UTC on May 18 capturing visible aurora from my location in Cornwall, Ontario, Canada. The display was not very intense, but a treat nonetheless.

Green Glow - Image by Kevin / SolarHam.com

More nice image by Robert Fry also in Cornwall, Ontario, Canada, Jean-Bruno Dancause in Quebec, Canada., Paul Zizka in Alberta, Canada.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 May 18 0300 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 18 0112 UTC
Deviation: 31 nT
Station: Boulder

Updated 05/18/2013 @ 13:55 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Solar activity is currently at low levels this morning. The largest X-Ray event within the past 24 hours was a minor C6.0 flare around Sunspot 1748 at 03:45 UTC. Several Sunspots, including 1744, 1747, 1748, 1749 and 1752 appear to be in a decay phase. Region 1743 located in the northwest quadrant is now for the most part spotless. There will remain a declining threat for another moderate to strong solar flare, with the likely source being Sunspot 1748 which is now in a geoeffective position.

Minor G1 Level Geomagnetic Storming was observed for several hours early this morning following a glancing blow CME impact. Visual aurora was spotted across many locations , including the northern USA and Canada. The incoming shock wave was due to the X1 flare event on May 15. Anther CME impact with a potential to generate another geomagnetic storm is expected during the day tomorrow.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

Visible Solar Disk (Saturday) - Click to Open

Updated 05/17/2013 @ 18:50 UTC
M3.2 Solar Flare + CME
A moderate solar flare reaching M3.2 was detected around Sunspot 1748 at 08:57 UTC Friday morning. The latest solar flare event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 450sfu, along with Type II and IV Radio Emissions (Sweep Frequency Events). The active region is now in a geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejecitons. I will provide further updates should a CME be associated. Stay Tuned for more information. Image below by SDO.

CME Update: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the latest STEREO Behind COR2 imagery. There does appear to be an Earth directed component. The latest CME Prediction Model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center shows a possible impact by late on May 19th. The Coronal Mass Ejection was the result of the M3 solar flare event from this morning. Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming at high latitudes may be possible if the plasma cloud sweeps past our planet on Sunday. I will provide more updates in the days ahead.

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18: None (Below G1) May 19: G2 (Moderate) May 20: None (Below G1)

CME Prediction Model - Click to Watch

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 May 18 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
18/0345Z from Region 1748 (N12E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20
May, 21 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 476 km/s at 18/0911Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/0244Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 18/0146Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32
pfu at 17/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 131 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (19 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (19
May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20
May, 21 May).


III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     60/30/30
PCAF       yellow




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