Hello again. Solar activity remains stuck at very low levels, although the solar flux index did climb above 90 on Thursday. AR 2898 continues to evolve in the southeast quadrant, while a new regions looks to be forming in the southwest. There will remain a chance for an isolated C-Flare during the next 24 hours. Image below by SDO/HMI.
November 23, 2021 @ 00:50 UTC
Good evening. Solar activity remains at very low levels with no flaring to report. Both spotted regions 2896 and 2897 are stable and non threatening. A few potential regions are trying to form in the circled locations and will be monitored.
The solar wind stream remains elevated above 500 km/s and could contribute to minor geomagnetic enhancements at higher latitudes. Visible aurora is likely around the polar zones.
Coronal Hole Facing Earth
November 19, 2021 @ 13:00 UTC
Good morning. Solar activity has been very quiet over the past several days. Only two sunspots are visible and both are small and non threatening. A coronal hole (20) located in the southern hemisphere is now facing Earth. A solar wind stream flowing from this zone should reach Earth during the next 48 hours and enhance geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes. Aurora sky watchers should be alert beginning on Saturday.
Coronal Hole Stream
November 15, 2021 @ 20:15 UTC
An expected coronal hole stream is now beginning to move past Earth. Elevated geomagnetic activity (Kp4) will be possible during the next 24-48 hours while the stream is geoeffective. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for displays of aurora.
November 9, 2021 @ 19:55 UTC
Good afternoon. Solar activity is back up to moderate levels with a long duration M2.0 event peaking at 17:02 UTC (Nov 9) around old region 2891, now located behind the northwest limb. Region 2891 was a spotless plage while rotating out of view, but evidently was still magnetically unstable and generated this nice eruption. An impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest STEREO Ahead coronagraph imagery. Due to the event location behind the limb, it should be directed away from our planet. A geomagnetic storm is not to be expected.
November 7, 2021 @ 23:00 UTC
Hello again. Space Weather is at much quieter levels as compared to the previous two weeks. No large solar flares or geomagnetic storms to speak of at the moment. A new area of flux is emerging in the northeast quadrant and should be assigned AR 2895 during the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, AR 2894 in the southeast quadrant is fairly quiet with only very minor B-Flares detected. An isolated C-Flare will remain possible as we head into Monday. Image below courtesy of SDO/HMI.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date space weather news and data.
Geomagnetic Storm Update
November 3, 2021 @ 19:50 UTC
Minor (G1) to Strong (G3) geomagnetic storming continued throughout the day on Thursday in the wake of the multi CME impact yesterday evening. This storm was responsible for amazing displays of aurora across many locations and below is a great example.
This beauty of an image was captured very early Thursday morning by Dar and Tree Tanner (TeamTanner) from Alix, Alberta, Canada. Amazing display and thanks for sharing!
The solar wind remains elevated near 600 km/s and with some help from the Bz/IMF, additional flareups of activity will be possible during the next 24 hours.
CME Impact / Strong G3 Storm Warning (UPDATED)
November 3, 2021 @ 19:50 UTC
What looks to be an interplanetary shock just passed the DSCOVR spacecraft within the past half hour. The solar wind speed increased from around 480 km/s to just over 600 km/s. This is likely related to the CME activity from the past several days. A minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for the next 24-48 hours. More to follow.
UPDATE: The CME passed Earth at 19:57 UTC and currently has a SW speed approaching 700 km/s. The moderate (G2) Geomagnetic Storm threshold was reached at 21:46 UTC (Nov 3). A watch is now in effect for Strong (G3) storm conditions as well until 03:00 UTC (Nov 4). Visible aurora will be likely at middle to high latitudes.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2021 Nov 03 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2021 Nov 03 1957 UTC
Deviation: 21 nT
Geomagnetic Storm Watch Added
November 2, 2021 @ 19:30 UTC
A geomagnetic storm watch has been added beginning late on November 3rd. An earlier CME produced by AR 2887 in combination with a full halo CME produced by an M1.7 flare around AR 2891 is predicted to deliver a blow to Earths geomagnetic field. Aurora sky watchers should be alert within the next 48-72 hours. Hopefully no near misses this time around!
Solar Update / Coronal Mass Ejections
November 2, 2021 @ 04:45 UTC (UPDATED)
A long duration event (LDE) measuring M1.7 was observed around Earth facing AR 2891 peaking at 03:01 UTC (Nov 2). Imagery courtesy of SDO/AIA using the 193 angstroms channel shows that this flare was likely eruptive and possibly Earth directed. This will only be confirmed once Earth facing coronagraph imagery is up to date. More updates later today.
There is currently a gap in available LASCO imagery, however in this frame what appears to be an asymmetrical coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible and likely heading towards Earth. Depending on the speed of the plasma cloud, a possible impact to our geomagnetic field could be possible by November 4th or 5th. I will provide another update later today.
Solar Update / Coronal Mass Ejections
November 2, 2021 @ 00:50 UTC
Good evening. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with one M-Flare (M1.5) and multiple C-Flares observed around AR 2887, now rotating closer towards the southwest limb. Two decent coronal mass ejections were produced, including this latest one captured below by LASCO C2 resulting from a long duration C4 flare at 21:33 UTC (Nov 1). The first CME resulting from the M1 flare at 01:45 UTC (Nov 1) appears to be heading mostly away from Earth, however according to NOAA/SWPC, a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field will be possible early on November 4th. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect within the next 72 hours. Solar activity should remain at low to moderate levels while AR 2887 remains in view.
November 1, 2021 @ 04:30 UTC (UPDATED)
Solar activity is back at moderate levels with an M1.5 solar flare detected around AR 2887 at 01:45 UTC (Nov 1). Imagery courtesy of of SDO/AIA shows a plasma wave leaving the flare site meaning that a CME may be associated. It remains to be seen if any of this plasma escaped the solar environment and is heading into space. The active region is no longer directly facing Earth. More updates to follow whenever necessary.
UPDATE: A CME was produced, but so far looks to be headed mostly to the south and west. More updates later today.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Nov 01 0129 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 626 km/s