3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (February 25, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

February 25
February 26
February 27

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               25             5             5
Mid/Minor_Storm          10             1             1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         30            20            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  40            10            10
Kp Index Breakdown

            Feb 25     Feb 26     Feb 27
00-03UT        4          2          2     
03-06UT        4          1          2     
06-09UT        3          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        3          2          1     
21-00UT        2          2          2     
 

Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

                                   
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to activity
associated with the arrival of the 20 Feb CME.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
through midday on 25 Feb as CME effects persist. A return to mostly
quiet conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) will be possible during the next 12 hours while an enhanced solar wind stream continues to flow past Earth. Visible aurora will be likely at very high latitudes.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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