3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast   (Updated December 8, 2022)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

Dec. 8
Dec. 9
Dec. 10

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               40            20            15
Mid/Minor_Storm          25             5             1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    5             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active               5            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         20            25            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  65            30            20
Kp Index Breakdown

            Dec 08       Dec 09       Dec 10
00-03UT       4.33         3.33         3.00     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.00     
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         1.33     
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
12-15UT       3.00         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         2.33         1.33     

Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   

                                
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels with the early
arrival of a CIR and CH HSS (negative polarity).

.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to be observed on
08 Dec with HSS conditions underway. Mostly unsettled to active levels
are expected 09 Dec as the solar wind environment begins to recover.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast on 10 Dec with a gradual
return to background conditions.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

Aurora will be likely at higher latitudes during the next 24 hours due to coronal hole stream effects.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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