Solar Flare Probabilities   (Updated December 7, 2022)

Whole Disk Probability
Flare Class
C
M
X
Proton
Prob (%)
90
30
10
05

Active Region Probability

3160
05
01
01
01
3159
05
01
01
01
3158
15
01
01
01
3157
30
05
01
01
3156
10
01
01
01
3155
10
01
01
01
3153
50
10
01
01

Discussion
.Forecast..

Solar activity is expected to be low through 10 Dec. There continues to be a chance for M-class flares and radio blackouts up to the R2 (Moderate) level. There also remains a slight chance for X-class flares capable of producing R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

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