Updated 05/18/2013 @ 03:20 UTC CME Impact / Minor Geomagnetic Storm
A little later than expected, but a Coronal Mass Ejection from the X1 event on May 15th swept past Earth on Friday evening. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 31 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer. With the help of a south tipping Bz / IMF component, a minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) lasting several hours resulted at high latitudes. Visual aurora was spotted across many locations , including the northern USA and Canada.
Aurora over British Columbia, Canada - Image by Kevin Sharman
Visual Aurora Images: Below is a photo taken by myself around 05:00 UTC on May 18 capturing visible aurora from my location in Cornwall, Ontario, Canada. The display was not very intense, but a treat nonetheless.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 May 18 0300 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 18 0112 UTC
Deviation: 31 nT
Station: Boulder
Updated 05/17/2013 @ 18:50 UTC M3.2 Solar Flare + CME
A moderate solar flare reaching M3.2 was detected around Sunspot 1748 at 08:57 UTC Friday morning. The latest solar flare event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 450sfu, along with Type II and IV Radio Emissions (Sweep Frequency Events). The active region is now in a geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejecitons. I will provide further updates should a CME be associated. Stay Tuned for more information. Image below by SDO.
CME Update: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the latest STEREO Behind COR2 imagery. There does appear to be an Earth directed component. The latest CME Prediction Model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center shows a possible impact by late on May 19th. The Coronal Mass Ejection was the result of the M3 solar flare event from this morning. Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming at high latitudes may be possible if the plasma cloud sweeps past our planet on Sunday. I will provide more updates in the days ahead.
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18: None (Below G1) May 19: G2 (Moderate) May 20: None (Below G1)
CME Prediction Model - Click to Watch
Updated 05/16/2013 @ 22:20 UTC M-Flare
After spending much of yesterday laying dormant, Sunspot 1748 is showing signs of life once again. The active region produced a moderate M1.3 solar flare at 21:53 UTC. Sunspot 1748 is turning into a more geoeffective position and any future eruptions could be Earth directed. Stay Tuned for the latest updates.
Updated 05/15/2013 @ 01:40 UTC 1748 Flares Again (X1.2)
Sunspot 1748 does it again. For the fourth time, the active region has produced a major X-Class solar flare. The latest event measured X1.2 and peaked at 01:47 UTC. The eruption was associated with Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events and a 10cm Radio Burst (Ten Flare) measuring 490 sfu. I will provide further updates regarding a possible Coronal Mass Ejection. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.
CME Update: The latest X-Flare event did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. Because the blast location is still not in prime position, a majority of the plasma was directed away from Earth. There does appear to be a very minor Earth directed component, however it should have only a minor effect on our geomagnetic field at best. Images below by LASCO C2.
X1.2 Solar Flare (Early Tuesday) - SDO
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 15 0133 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 15 0143 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 15 0150 UTC
Duration: 17 minutes
Peak Flux: 490 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Updated 05/14/2013 @ 01:15 UTC Third Major X-Flare (X3.2)
New Sunspot 1748 is proving to be a big time flare producer. A major solar flare reaching X3.2 just peaked at 01:10 UTC. This is the third such explosion within the past 24 hours. The first measured X1.7 and the second X2.8. Two of the three solar flares is good enough to make it into the Top 10 List of strongest flares during Cycle 24. The active region is still not in the best position for Earth directed explosions, however that will change with each passing hour. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0104 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 14 0115 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 14 0120 UTC
Duration: 16 minutes
Peak Flux: 560 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0113 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0107 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1514 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
CME Update: A pair of Coronal Mass Ejections generated by the X2.8 and X3.2 events are expected to miss Earth with only a small chance of a glancing blow later this week. Below is a CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center. You can also CLICK HERE to watch the animation.
CME Prediction Model - ISWA
Updated 05/14/2013 @ 14:00 UTC Prominence Eruptions
Several prominence eruptions were observed off the west limb on Monday. At least two Coronal Mass Ejections resulted, but each are not Earth directed. Below are a couple of nice images capturing two seperate events.
Another Prominence Eruption (Monday) - Ron Cottrell
Prominence Eruption (Monday) - SDO
Updated 05/13/2013 @ 16:15 UTC X2.8 Solar Flare
Another major X-Class solar flare, this time peaking at X2.8 was observed at 16:05 UTC. Another Strong Radio Blackout resulted on the sunlit side of Earth. The source is again the active region rotating into view off the east limb. The latest event generated a Coronal Mass Ejection that looks to be directed mostly towards the east and away from Earth. The solar rotation will continue to carry the Sunspot into a more direct Earth view this week. Images and video below. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com where you will get the latest solar information first.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 1557 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 949 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 1557 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 1553 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 1601 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 1618 UTC
Duration: 25 minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC [VIDEO]. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and will begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
CME Update: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but as expected it was directed away from Earth. [VIDEO]
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Alex Dzierba, Jr. located in Hawaii fought through the cloud cover and managed to capture the X-Class flare through his personal solar telescope. Great job and thanks for sharing!
Updated 05/12/2013 @ 23:00 UTC M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
UPDATE: Another M-Class Flare was observed off the east limb at 22:44 UTC. The latest event measured M1.2 [Image]
Added 05/12/2013 @ 12:55 UTC Filament Eruption
Below is a great new video by SDO using the 304 angstroms channel showing a large filament eruption on Saturday evening. The event itself located in the northwest quadrant produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that so far appears to be directed mostly away from Earth. The latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model suggests a possible glancing blow by May 15th, however I do not expect much in the way of geomagnetic activity.
Updated 05/10/2013 @ 21:10 UTC Another Day, Another Eruption
A large eruption beyond the west limb resulted in a fairly bright Coronal Mass Ejection on Friday afternoon. The event itself is not Earth directed, however it still put on a great show for the STEREO satellites. The image below by STEREO Behind COR1 captures the large prominence eruption off the farside of the Sun.
Updated 05/10/2013 @ 13:15 UTC Another M-Class Flare
The return of old Sunspot 1726 is looking good in terms of higher solar activity. Another M-Class flare, this time peaking at M1.3 was just detected at 12:56 UTC. This region will continue to rotate into view over the next 24 hours. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.
M1.3 Solar Flare (Friday) - SDO/EVE
Updated 05/10/2013 @ 01:15 UTC M3.9 Flare / Returning Sunspot 1726
Old Sunspot 1726 is proving to be a bit of a firecracker. The returning active region hiding just off the east limb produced a C9.0 solar flare at 23:00 UTC, followed by a stronger M3.9 event at 00:53 UTC. The sunspot rotation will carry the active region back into Earth view within the next 24 hours. Stay Tuned for updates.
M3.9 Solar Flare (Early Friday) - SDO/EVE
Updated 05/09/2013 @ 21:10 UTC Large Prominence Eruption
Below is a great new video by SDO capturing a large prominence eruption off the southwest limb on Thursday afternoon. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery. Because of the eruption location, the plasma cloud will be directed away from Earth.
Coronal Mass Ejection (Thursday) - STEREO Ahead COR2
Added 05/05/2013 @ 21:50 UTC Impulsive Solar Flares
A couple of impulsive solar flares were detected around Sunspot 1739 on Sunday afternoon. The first measured M1.4 at 17:56 UTC, and the second measured C8.3 at 20:02. This region may produce further M-Class activity within the next 24-48 hours.
M1.4 Solar Flare (Sunday) - SDO
Updated 05/03/2013 @ 17:50 UTC Strong M5.7 Solar Flare Detected
A strong solar flare reaching M5.7 was just detected around old Sunspot 1719 near the northeast limb at 17:32 UTC [VIDEO]. Because this region is not squarely Earth facing, any associated CME may be directed mostly away from Earth. I will provide more updates should there be a plasma cloud associated, and if so, if there is an earthbound component. This is the second M-Class flare within the hour with the first being centered around Sunspot 1731.
CME Update: The M5 event around old Sunspot 1719 did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. As expected, the plasma cloud appears to be directed mostly towards the east and away from Earth. Click HERE for an image by Lasco C2.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1745 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1297 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Updated 05/03/2013 @ 17:35 UTC M1.3 Solar Flare
A low level M-Class flare initially peaking at M1.3 was detected around Sunspot 1731 at 16:53 UTC this afternoon. The flare itself was fairly long in duration and still ongoing at the time of this update. I will provide another update should a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) be associated with this event. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather information.
UPDATE: Another flare is in progress and peaked at M5.7. Stay Tuned!
Added 05/02/2013 @ 08:50 UTC M1 Solar Flare + CME
Solar activity is now at moderate levels thanks to an isolated M1.1 Solar Flare around Sunspot 1731 in the northern hemisphere. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery. It appears that a majority of the plasma cloud was directed north of the Sun-Earth field, however I will provide more updates once more data is available.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 02 0502 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 02 0505 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 02 0505 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 02 0506 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 703 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Added 05/01/2013 @ 03:40 UTC Monster Eruption
One of the largest prominence eruptions in quite some time was observed off the eastern limb. This image by SDO using the 304 angstroms channel captures the massive blob of plasma in action. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is to be expected, however because of the location, it should be directed mostly away from Earth. Stay Tuned for updates.
UPDATE: The large eruption from just beyond the east limb may have been in conjunction with a solar flare around old Sunspot 1719. This image by STEREO Behind captures the flash of the flare event. The solar rotation will carry old region 1719 into view later this week. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection is now visible in the latest STEREO imagery. Because this event took place beyond the east limb, the plasma cloud should have little impact on Earth.
Added 05/01/2013 @ 06:00 UTC May 1st Aurora Show
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was tipped south for many hours on Wednesday and this helped to stir up geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. Visible aurora was spotted early this morning across many locations.
Zoltan Kenwell in Alberta, Canada, sends us this fantastic aurora image he captured very early this morning in Alberta, Canada. "Well, we had a bit of a rogue event this morning! I was watching data around 8 pm and noticed the Bz was south for some time so I geared up and hit the road. The show really started around 12:10 am. I imaged till 3:30 am and called it a night."
Added 05/01/2013 @ 01:30 UTC Near M-Class Flare
A near M-Class flare (C9.6) wasdetected at 01:26 UTC. The flare was centered around Sunspot 1730 located in the southern hemisphere. The flare itself was impulsive in nature and a large CME is not expected. I will provide further updates if needed.
