Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Issued: 2018 Aug 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2018 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 4 3 2 06-09UT 3 3 2 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 3 2 1 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               30            20            10
Mid/Minor_Storm          15             5             1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    5             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              10            15            20
High/Minor_Storm         25            25            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  50            25            10
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is now moving past Earth near 500 km/s. A minor geomagnetic enhancement (Kp4) will be possible at higher latitudes.


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Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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