Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

:Issued: 2018 Dec 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 11-Dec 13 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 11-Dec 13 2018

            Dec 11     Dec 12     Dec 13
00-03UT        1          2          4     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        1          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               10            15            20
Mid/Minor_Storm           1             5             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            20
High/Minor_Storm         15            25            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  15            25            20
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at fairly quiet levels during the next few days. Widespread aurora beyond the Arctic Circle is now currently expected.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
HOME