Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2017

            Feb 24     Feb 25     Feb 26
00-03UT        4          3          2     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
06-09UT        4          3          2     
09-12UT        3          3          2     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely early on day one (24
Feb) due to CH HSS effects.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               35            25            15
Mid/Minor_Storm          20            10             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    5             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              10            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         20            30            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  50            40            20

Aurora Forecast
A high speed coronal hole stream is now geoeffective. Enhanced geomagnetic activity reaching minor (G1) storm levels will be possible within the next 24 hours at higher latitudes. Sky watchers should be alert for visible aurora.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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