Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Apr 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 26-Apr 28 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 26-Apr 28 2017

            Apr 26     Apr 27     Apr 28
00-03UT        2          4          3     
03-06UT        2          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          2          3     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          3     

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on day one (26
Apr) as CH HSS influences persist.


:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               40            30            30
Mid/Minor_Storm          25             5             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              10            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         25            30            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  60            35            35
#

Aurora Forecast
Enhanced geomagnetic activity will remain possible during the next 24 hours before a return to quieter conditions is expected. Sky watchers should still be alert for visible aurora, especially around the Arctic Circle.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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