Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 16-Dec 18 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 16-Dec 18 2017

            Dec 16     Dec 17     Dec 18
00-03UT        2          2          4     
03-06UT        1          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          4     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are anticipated on 18 Dec
as influence from a positive polarity coronal hole disturbs the
near-Earth space environment.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active               10            25            40
Mid/Minor_Storm           1            10            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            10
High/Minor_Storm         15            30            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  10            35            55
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth by December 17th. Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming will be possible at higher latitudes. Sky watchers should be alert for visible aurora.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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