Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 28 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

            Mar 28     Mar 29     Mar 30
00-03UT        6 (G2)     6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          4     
09-12UT        4          4          3     
12-15UT        4          3          3     
15-18UT        4          4          3     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4     

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are expected on days one and two (28-29
Mar) due to CH HSS activity. The solar wind environment is likely to
remain enhanced into day three (30 Mar) due to continued CH HSS
influences; G1 (Minor) levels are expected.


:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               30            30            35
Mid/Minor_Storm          35            30            20
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm   15            15             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         20            20            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  20            25            25

Aurora Forecast
A high speed solar wind stream near 700 km/s is contributing to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Visible aurora will be likely for Scandinavia, Canada and Alaska. Aurora will also be possible for northern Europe, the UK and nothern tier USA. Sky watchers should be alert once dark outside.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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