Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2017

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        2          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          5 (G1)     4     
09-12UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
12-15UT        3          4          3     
15-18UT        4          4          4     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          5 (G1)
21-00UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to react with mainly quiet
to active conditions due to SSBC effects, with a few likely periods of
G1 (Minor) storming later on day one (24 Oct), in response to CIR
arrival and CH HSS onset. Day two (25 Oct) is expected to experience
active to minor (G1) storming, with a few periods of G2 (Moderate)
storming likely early, due to enhanced IMF strength associated with CIR
passage and elevated solar wind speeds from the isolated positive
polarity CH HSS. Day three (26 Oct) is expected to respond with
primarily unsettled to active conditions, with likely periods of G1
(Minor) storming as CH HSS effects continue.
:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active               35            30            35
Mid/Minor_Storm          25            40            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    5            20            15
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              10             5            10
High/Minor_Storm         20            15            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  65            75            55
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth beginning on October 24th. Minor (G1) to Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming will be possible at higher latitudes within 48-72 hours. Sky watchers should be alert for visual aurora displays.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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