Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 20-Aug 22 2017

            Aug 20     Aug 21     Aug 22
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on day one
(20 Aug) due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               35            25            15
Mid/Minor_Storm          10             5             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            20
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  50            35            25
#

Aurora Forecast
Periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity (Kp4) will remain possible during the next 24-48 hours while a high speed solar wind stream remains geoeffective. An isolated period of minor (G1) storming will also remain a possibility. Visible aurora will be possible at high latitudes.


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Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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